Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A6 0xa6a4…6ed6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,511 (-65%) realized −$1,662 · open +$151

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip

Net edge-86%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$180per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-85.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-83.5%	-85.0%	0%	0%	-87.5%
≤30d	12	-83.5%	-85.0%	0%	0%	-87.5%
≤90d	12	-83.5%	-85.0%	0%	0%	-87.5%
all	12	-83.5%	-85.0%	0%	0%	-87.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-85.0%	0%	-87.5%
10%	-86.5%	0%	-88.7%
15%	-87.8%	0%	-89.8%
20%	-89.0%	0%	-90.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -83% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -99% → late -68% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$151 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$351

Realized−$1,662

Unrealized+$151

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 12

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage2d

Avg bet$180

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	100¢	$200	$351	+$151 (+75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 19	$193	−$189	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$203	−$11	-5%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$550	−$540	-98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$102	−$5	-5%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 19	$205	−$200	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$205	−$200	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$254	−$250	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$203	−$200	-98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	19¢	$193	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	46¢	$193	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	40¢	$550	4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	22¢	$98	5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	19¢	$205	5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$203	39h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$205	40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$254	40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	SELL Up	0¢	$0	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.70 · official $350.70 (match) · 20 history records