Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa6a4…5f6d other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$843 (+0%) realized +$842 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%30W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,727per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$54
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$380
politics 36% −$125
sports 13% +$25
culture 3% −$9
world 2% +$534
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 40 -6.9% -15.8% 8% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 116 -9.6% -18.2% 9% 4% -10.0%
all 156 +3.1% -6.8% 19% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 13% -9.3%
10% -15.7% 13% -17.9%
15% -23.8% 12% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,490) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$12 · ×6.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$842
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses30 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,727
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $339 $338 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $260 $261 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,864 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,254 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $4,176 −$8 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,011 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,477 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,658 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,054 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,626 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $59 +$76 +129%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,919 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $461 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $689 +$1 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,507 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,151 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,490 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,406 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $86 +$38 +44%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,591 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,220 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $4,086 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,957 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $5,765 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $339 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $903 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $904 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $422 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $423 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,339 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,341 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,087 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,348 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,350 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,352 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,351 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,240 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,241 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,362 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,364 11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 99¢ $98 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.61 · official $599.61 (match) · 536 history records