Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6a5…03a4 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 28% $0
politics 4% −$3
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 18 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 6% -9.2%
all 35 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $2 −$1 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $40 +$5 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $44 −$3 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $48 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 −$1 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $2 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $6 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $48 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $48 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $40 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $22 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $17 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $40 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $8 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $33 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records