Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6a7…4a09 world 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,189 (-20%) realized −$1,083 · open −$1,106
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$792per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$82
30 days−$1,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$963
crypto 45% −$1,328
tech 9% +$47
sports 0% −$2
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 8% -20.7%
≤90d 13 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 8% -20.7%
all 13 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 8% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 8% -20.7%
10% -22.3% 8% -28.3%
15% -29.8% 8% -35.2%
20% -36.7% 8% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$266 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,083
Unrealized−$1,106
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage18d
Avg bet$792
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 35¢ $1,108 $2 −$1,106 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $378 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 10 $87 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $334 +$16 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $708 +$31 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,488 +$37 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,915 −$1,327 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,074 +$94 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $184 +$13 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $19 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $37 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $37 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $76 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $107 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $41 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $378 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $490 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $152 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $123 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $24 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $25 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $378 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,035 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL No 87¢ $86 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 87¢ $22 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 87¢ $65 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 92¢ $184 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $570 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 84¢ $20 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 84¢ $148 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 91¢ $182 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 83¢ $109 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 83¢ $19 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 83¢ $38 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $340 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 13d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $1.56 (match) · 103 history records