Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6a7…e5d4 sports 990 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+0%) realized +$262 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%515W / 472L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day93.2pace
Fees−$903est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$495
7 days−$1,127
14 days−$1,022
30 days−$789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,767
other 7% +$775
crypto 0% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +14.6% +3.7% 45% 45% -29.0%
≤30d 987 -0.9% -10.4% 52% 49% -10.6%
≤90d 987 -0.9% -10.4% 52% 49% -10.6%
all 987 -0.9% -10.4% 52% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 49% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 43% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 37% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 31% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +40% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$57 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses515 / 472
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$903
Open positions3
Markets (closed)987 / 990
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day93.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 987 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+6%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ 4¢ $107 $12 −$94 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $164 −$153 -93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $529 −$314 -59%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $84 −$67 -80%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $120 −$116 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $130 −$127 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $307 +$98 +32%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $224 −$220 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $195 +$175 +90%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $231 +$223 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $140 +$113 +81%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $171 −$168 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$193 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$21 +165%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $166 +$138 +83%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $168 −$166 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $347 +$151 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $191 −$188 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $250 +$286 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $425 −$414 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $111 +$68 +61%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $166 +$205 +124%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $235 +$300 +128%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $289 −$224 -78%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $181 −$80 -44%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$38 -80%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $143 −$142 -99%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 12 $43 −$43 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $72 +$3 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $369 −$210 -57%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42 −$24 -57%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $25 +$36 +143%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +140%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $13 −$12 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 09 $16 +$16 +100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $11 +$27 +259%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $40 +$49 +122%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $3 15m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $106 24m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 10h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $2 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 49¢ $4 11h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $9 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $77 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $2 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $1 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $36 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $21 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $2 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 51¢ $3 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 50¢ $2 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 50¢ $1 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 50¢ $3 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 47¢ $9 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 47¢ $9 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 49¢ $3 13h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $2 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $4 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 54¢ $119 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 54¢ $83 15h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $4 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $3 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.85 · official $121.31 · 3500 history records