Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
A6 0xa6ac…c69b sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$8,852 (+42%) realized +$7,821 · open +$1,031
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$6,125
crypto 21% +$1,436
sports 18% −$516
culture 3% −$705
world 1% +$2,365
tech 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 50% +13.8%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 46% -26.2%
≤90d 21 +110.9% +90.8% 43% 43% +43.9%
all 48 +68.5% +52.5% 52% 50% +23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.5% 50% +23.9%
10% +37.9% 48% +12.0%
15% +24.6% 44% +1.2%
20% +12.4% 42% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +83% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +40% → late +98% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$515 vs −$222 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$2,341
Realized+$7,821
Unrealized+$1,031
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage276d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 66¢ $660 $1,320 +$660 (+100%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $600 $1,020 +$420 (+70%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $75 +$125 +165%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$83 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $89 +$111 +124%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $89 −$88 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 +$93 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $426 −$418 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $152 +$241 +158%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $92 −$92 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $105 −$103 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $23 +$973 +4230%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 08 $143 −$143 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $208 +$1,392 +669%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Apr 07 $168 −$168 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 20 $96 +$204 +212%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Feb 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Feb 25 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $200 +$185 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Feb 12 $94 +$106 +113%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 11 $116 +$84 +72%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $204 −$204 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 07 $760 −$220 -29%
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 13 $1,320 +$180 +14%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 19 $294 +$26 +9%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 25 $562 −$562 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $500 +$2,001 +400%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,600 +$2,400 +150%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Nov 21 $40 +$57 +143%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Nov 21 $300 +$700 +233%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 19 $384 +$216 +56%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 15 $1,317 +$439 +33%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 09 $900 −$900 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$225 +225%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 04 $4,270 +$1,432 +34%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,080 −$307 -28%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,500 +$1,410 +94%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $280 −$280 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Sep 19 $230 +$87 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $75 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 28¢ $51 35h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 35h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 43¢ $102 35h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 47h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $89 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $89 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $55 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $60 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $56 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $61 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $426 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $44 51d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $44 51d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 60d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 60d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $81 60d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $152 60d
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $105 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $996 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $23 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.49 · official $2,348.99 (match) · 230 history records