Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa6ad…7fef crypto 853 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate87%745W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 69% -8.7%
≤30d 321 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 67% -10.4%
≤90d 852 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 67% -9.4%
all 853 +0.5% -9.0% 87% 67% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 67% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 11% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses745 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)853 / 853
History coverage126d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 853 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1720 history records