Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa6ad…779e sports 1017 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$955 (+1%) realized +$1,027 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%987W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$28
14 days+$65
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$708
other 2% +$114
finance 1% +$13
politics 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$5
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.1% -8.5% 97% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 139 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 2% -5.5%
≤90d 770 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 2% -8.4%
all 1015 +1.4% -8.2% 97% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$56 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$1,027
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses987 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1015 / 1017
History coverage133d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the toss? Hong Kong, China 98¢ 50¢ $93 $48 −$45 (-48%)
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Toss Match Double Nigeria Winner No 99¢ 50¢ $54 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns - Wh Jun 20 $84 +$1 +1%
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A - Who win Jun 20 $103 +$2 +2%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? Jun 20 $193 +$4 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos Jun 19 $97 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Toss Match Double N Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complet Jun 19 $78 +$1 +1%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win Jun 19 $73 +$5 +7%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas - Toss Match Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas - Who wins th Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Toss Match Double Jun 18 $64 +$1 +1%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Toss Match Doubl Jun 18 $54 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Most Sixes Brazil Wi Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Toss Match Double Br Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Team Top Batter Mala Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Team Top Batter Draw Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Toss Match Double Jun 17 $152 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 16 $128 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $133 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Toss Match Double Br Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Toss Match Doubl Jun 14 $57 +$1 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $148 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $284 +$3 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Who wins the tos Jun 13 $307 +$3 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $201 +$2 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $158 +$3 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates - Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 11 $85 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 10 $145 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman - Toss Match Double Oman Jun 10 $163 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman - Who wins the toss? Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent - Toss Match Double Essex Winner Jun 09 $83 +$3 +4%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $51 +$3 +6%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire - Toss Match Double Worc Jun 09 $180 +$3 +1%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire - Toss Match Double Lancashire Winner Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $37 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos BUY Hong Kong, China 99¢ $20 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos BUY Hong Kong, China 99¢ $24 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos BUY Hong Kong, China 96¢ $48 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Toss Match Doubl BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Bangladesh 99¢ $11 5h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Bangladesh 99¢ $4 5h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns - Wh BUY San Francisco Unicorns 99¢ $84 17h
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A - Who win SELL India A 100¢ $106 19h
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A - Who win BUY India A 99¢ $67 23h
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A - Who win BUY India A 95¢ $37 24h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? BUY Namibia 99¢ $147 25h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? BUY Namibia 95¢ $5 25h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? BUY Namibia 95¢ $41 25h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t BUY Afghanistan 100¢ $2 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY Ireland 99¢ $6 44h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Toss Match Double N BUY No 99¢ $54 44h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos BUY Namibia 95¢ $5 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos BUY Namibia 99¢ $65 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos BUY Namibia 95¢ $27 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complet BUY Yes 99¢ $78 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Australia 99¢ $4 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Australia 98¢ $44 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Australia 85¢ $26 2d
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas - Who wins th BUY Texas Super Kings 99¢ $100 2d
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas - Toss Match BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Toss Match Double BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Toss Match Doubl BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss BUY Pakistan 99¢ $5 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss BUY Pakistan 99¢ $4 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Most Sixes Brazil Wi BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.33 · official $75.33 (match) · 2809 history records