Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6af…467b other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1
other 26% $0
politics 11% +$4
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% −$2
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 62% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -9.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $12 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 30 $19 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $19 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Mar 21 $17 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $11 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $20 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $31 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $22 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $17 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $14 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 83¢ $22 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 83¢ $8 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records