trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $9,809 | $2,591 | −$7,218 (-74%) |
| Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $173 | $35 | −$138 (-80%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 05 | $3,003 | −$1,791 | -60% |
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | Jun 05 | $2,568 | −$1,858 | -72% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Jun 03 | $14,575 | −$5,412 | -37% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -66.0% | -69.2% | 0% | 0% | -68.8% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -56.4% | -60.5% | 0% | 0% | -50.2% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -56.4% | -60.5% | 0% | 0% | -50.2% |
| all | 3 | -56.4% | -60.5% | 0% | 0% | -50.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -60.5% | 0% | -50.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -64.3% | 0% | -55.0% |
| 15% | -67.8% | 0% | -59.3% |
| 20% | -70.9% | 0% | -63.3% |