Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa6b6…99c0 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$201 (-2%) realized −$224 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate79%48W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$484
14 days−$252
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$222
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.9% -23.9% 72% 24% -29.6%
≤30d 60 -6.1% -15.1% 80% 25% -12.1%
≤90d 61 -7.7% -16.5% 79% 25% -12.2%
all 61 -7.7% -16.5% 79% 25% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 25% -12.2%
10% -24.5% 13% -20.6%
15% -31.8% 8% -28.3%
20% -38.5% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$78 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses48 / 13
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage31d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 70¢ 100¢ $55 $78 +$23 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Mia Slama Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $25 +$33 +131%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $6 −$5 -97%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Michiel De Krom vs Ryan Nijboer Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Eugenia Zozaya Menendez vs Marie Mettraux Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $272 −$170 -62%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Glinka/Sakellaridis Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
ITF Monastir: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
ITF Merzig: Marie Weckerle vs Valentina Steiner Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Manon Leonard Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
ITF Monastir: Aspen Schuman vs Sun Min Ha Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $101 +$20 +20%
ITF Monastir: Marcus Walters vs Dominick Mosejczuk Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $200 +$17 +8%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $200 +$9 +4%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $203 −$100 -49%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $71 −$15 -21%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $300 +$10 +3%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $225 +$14 +6%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $200 +$8 +4%
ITF Brasilia: Nicolas Oliveira vs Salvador Price Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $131 +$20 +15%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $50 +$14 +27%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $100 +$19 +18%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $300 +$13 +4%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $401 +$34 +9%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $201 +$19 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $101 +$40 +40%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton Jun 08 $200 +$10 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $301 +$19 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $200 +$8 +4%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 06 $101 +$33 +32%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 06 $401 +$24 +6%
Libema Open, Qualification: Alec Deckers vs Bernard Tomic Jun 06 $401 +$24 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Mia Slama BUY Marie Vogt 87¢ $50 44m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 22¢ $5 50m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 90¢ $50 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 55¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 37¢ $15 1h
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Giuseppe La Vela $6 2h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Michiel De Krom vs Ryan Nijboer BUY Michiel De Krom $10 3h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi BUY Diae El Jardi $10 3h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Eugenia Zozaya Menendez vs Marie Mettraux BUY Marie Mettraux 96¢ $100 7h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 38¢ $41 27h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 92¢ $100 30h
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 97¢ $100 3d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 96¢ $100 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 95¢ $100 5d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 49¢ $20 6d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL David Jorda Sanchis 74¢ $131 6d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY David Jorda Sanchis 56¢ $101 6d
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Maria Sara Popa BUY Clara Burel 95¢ $100 6d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 89¢ $150 6d
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 89¢ $100 6d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Glinka/Sakellaridis BUY Cabral/Mektic 96¢ $300 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 83¢ $101 6d
ITF Monastir: Marcus Walters vs Dominick Mosejczuk BUY Dominick Mosejczuk 96¢ $100 6d
ITF Monastir: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Cesar Bouchelaghem 97¢ $100 6d
ITF Merzig: Marie Weckerle vs Valentina Steiner BUY Valentina Steiner 92¢ $100 6d
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia BUY Emma Lene 90¢ $100 6d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva BUY Julia Avdeeva 94¢ $100 6d
ITF Monastir: Aspen Schuman vs Sun Min Ha BUY Aspen Schuman 95¢ $100 6d
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Manon Leonard BUY Aliona Falei 95¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.24 · official $78.24 (match) · 143 history records