Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6b7…c718 crypto 699 markets active 2h ago coverage 1251d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate83%579W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$104
14 days+$56
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$69
weather 20% −$12
other 18% +$20
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +17.4% +6.2% 90% 64% +9.7%
≤30d 202 +0.9% -8.7% 78% 47% -9.0%
≤90d 691 -2.9% -12.2% 84% 31% -11.3%
all 695 -3.1% -12.4% 83% 31% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 31% -11.4%
10% -20.8% 9% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 5% -27.6%
20% -35.4% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1251d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses579 / 116
Open positions4
Markets (closed)695 / 699
History coverage1251d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? Yes 45¢ 76¢ $40 $68 +$28 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? No 88¢ 100¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? No 73¢ 71¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? No 88¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$84 +203%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
HYPE Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$30 +148%
HYPE Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
HYPE Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
HYPE Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $41 −$28 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +48%
HYPE Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 21h
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 27h
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $40 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 92¢ $108 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $18 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
HYPE Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on June 24? BUY No 63¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? SELL No 3¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
HYPE Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.63 · official $174.63 (match) · 3188 history records