Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6b7…d5f3 world 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,923 (+6%) realized +$17,924 · open −$5,001
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%230W / 136L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$114
14 days+$2,572
30 days+$11,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$5,637
other 13% +$3,811
politics 13% −$857
crypto 4% +$88
sports 2% −$292
tech 2% +$441
finance 0% −$164
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -21.8% -29.3% 50% 38% -11.3%
≤30d 306 +6.3% -3.9% 62% 42% -1.6%
≤90d 366 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 42% -2.6%
all 366 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 42% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 42% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 33% -11.9%
15% -21.7% 25% -20.4%
20% -29.4% 19% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$103 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$7,006
Realized+$17,924
Unrealized−$5,001
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses230 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions62
Markets (closed)366 / 448
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$446
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $1,217 $1,030 −$187 (-15%)
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? No 100¢ 99¢ $708 $706 −$2 (-0%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 36¢ 68¢ $259 $480 +$221 (+85%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 70¢ 90¢ $354 $451 +$97 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $392 $404 +$12 (+3%)
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $350 $358 +$8 (+2%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 21¢ $806 $348 −$458 (-57%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 60¢ $284 $263 −$21 (-7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 33¢ $339 $254 −$85 (-25%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 55¢ 96¢ $119 $209 +$90 (+76%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 100¢ $136 $199 +$63 (+46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $167 $199 +$32 (+19%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $153 $162 +$9 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $3,193 $132 −$3,061 (-96%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 47¢ 29¢ $199 $122 −$77 (-39%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $96 $122 +$26 (+27%)
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Yes 44¢ 16¢ $301 $113 −$188 (-62%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 13¢ 26¢ $54 $105 +$52 (+96%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $85 $99 +$14 (+16%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $88 $76 −$12 (-13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 60¢ 20¢ $171 $58 −$113 (-66%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $118 $58 −$60 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 84¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 +$2 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $5 +$3 +60%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $57 +$22 +38%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $102 +$51 +51%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $219 −$122 -56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 29 $100 +$35 +35%
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $91 −$90 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -52%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -99%
South Africa to score first vs. Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $46 +$4 +9%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $25 +$31 +124%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$77 +76%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 +$11 +112%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 26 $56 +$26 +47%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$43 +43%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 +$142 +140%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $61 +$46 +76%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $56 −$55 -99%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goals Jun 25 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Worl Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $65 −$14 -22%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 +$2 +40%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 20m
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $350 23m
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 88¢ $5 34m
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 35m
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 35m
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? BUY No 100¢ $708 40m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2. BUY 53¢ $30 50m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $56 59m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 34¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 35¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $11 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $14 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 25¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 26¢ $41 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29 BUY 18¢ $5 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 58¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 58¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY 29¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY 54¢ $10 4h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $2 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 73¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,006.36 · official $7,049.70 (match) · 3500 history records