Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa6b9…bdc8 sports 389 markets active 2h ago coverage 924d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$61 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%148W / 188L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$36
14 days−$7
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$9
politics 28% −$49
economics 22% −$12
other 8% −$26
world 1% +$11
culture 0% −$6
finance 0% −$19
tech 0% +$14
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -17.6% -25.5% 34% 20% -20.7%
≤30d 212 +9.4% -1.1% 47% 36% -11.3%
≤90d 272 +5.6% -4.4% 47% 37% -5.7%
all 336 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 33% -9.6%
10% -15.8% 28% -18.3%
15% -24.0% 24% -26.2%
20% -31.4% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

924d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses148 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions53
Markets (closed)336 / 389
History coverage924d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 39¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 79¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 26¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 63¢ 93¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+48%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 36¢ 86¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+140%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 77¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 47¢ 79¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+68%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $1 $0 -25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $19 −$5 -27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will New York Jets win the 2026 AFC East? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -10%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -15%
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -47%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 19 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +27%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $11 +$1 +11%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -22%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$5 +87%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will New York Jets win the 2026 AFC East? SELL No 95¢ $1 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 6h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 6h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 7¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 12h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $3 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $4 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $2 13h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 16¢ $1 14h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 7¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 38¢ $4 14h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 69¢ $1 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.79 · official $155.58 (match) · 1117 history records