Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A6 0xa6b9…db19 sports 27 markets active 8h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,268 (-12%) realized −$2,268 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$716per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$186est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,175
7 days−$2,722
14 days−$2,226
30 days−$2,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,804
crypto 11% +$251
finance 2% −$21
world 1% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -45.1% -50.3% 38% 25% -43.1%
≤30d 10 -32.0% -38.5% 50% 40% -30.2%
≤90d 22 -12.0% -20.4% 59% 50% -19.0%
all 27 -20.2% -27.8% 48% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 41% -20.8%
10% -34.7% 33% -28.4%
15% -41.0% 22% -35.3%
20% -46.8% 15% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,192) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$436 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage482d
Avg bet$716
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1,189 −$1,175 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 14 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,183 −$1,167 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1,192 +$471 +40%
Nuno Borges vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $169 −$62 -37%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1,202 +$48 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1,207 +$393 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,211 +$274 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1,205 +$221 +18%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Apr 15 $1,051 −$1,034 -98%
Tallahassee: Clement Tabur vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Apr 14 $1,102 +$804 +73%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez Apr 14 $650 −$650 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 14 $1,212 +$125 +10%
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Musetti Apr 14 $480 +$282 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 14 $452 +$125 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 12 $480 −$21 -4%
Campinas: Gonzalo Bueno vs Gustavo Heide Apr 12 $410 +$170 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $240 +$170 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 08 $646 +$377 +58%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $250 −$247 -99%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 08 $1,185 +$242 +20%
Magic vs. Hawks Feb 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Feb 21 $58 −$31 -54%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Feb 21 $272 −$213 -78%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Feb 20 $512 −$240 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 20 $523 −$11 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 59¢ $1,189 7h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Minaur 54¢ $1,183 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 58¢ $10 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $1,220 4d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1,663 4d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 71¢ $1,192 5d
Nuno Borges vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 54¢ $107 5d
Nuno Borges vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 84¢ $169 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Sho Shimabukuro 99¢ $1,250 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 95¢ $1,202 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $878 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 82¢ $722 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ $1,207 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $1,485 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $1,211 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $1,426 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 84¢ $1,205 10d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 44¢ $1,051 62d
Tallahassee: Clement Tabur vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg SELL Clement Tabur 100¢ $1,906 62d
Tallahassee: Clement Tabur vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg BUY Clement Tabur 57¢ $1,102 62d
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas SELL Stefanos Tsitsipas 56¢ $1,337 62d
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 50¢ $1,212 63d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez BUY Sebastian Baez 53¢ $650 63d
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Musetti SELL Musetti 99¢ $763 63d
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Musetti BUY Musetti 62¢ $480 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 79¢ $576 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 60¢ $452 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? SELL Yes 62¢ $459 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? BUY Yes 64¢ $480 64d
Campinas: Gonzalo Bueno vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $580 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records