Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6bb…b6b6 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-18%) realized −$66 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$20
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$38
sports 17% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.4% -40.7% 40% 40% -20.4%
≤30d 8 -40.3% -46.0% 38% 38% -32.2%
≤90d 8 -40.3% -46.0% 38% 38% -32.2%
all 8 -40.3% -46.0% 38% 38% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 38% -32.2%
10% -51.1% 38% -38.7%
15% -55.9% 38% -44.6%
20% -60.2% 25% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$29 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 68¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 43¢ 32¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY 19¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Ur BUY 7¢ $10 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $20 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.59 · official $87.59 (match) · 16 history records