Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A6 0xa6bb…a47f sports 463 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,762 (-2%) realized −$2,817 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%331W / 127L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$254est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$572
7 days−$515
14 days−$1,617
30 days−$3,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$2,266
other 13% −$144
weather 2% −$872
world 2% +$82
culture 2% +$157
politics 1% +$43
crypto 0% −$112
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 43% -13.2%
≤30d 457 -2.4% -11.7% 72% 32% -11.8%
≤90d 458 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 31% -11.8%
all 458 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 31% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 14% -20.2%
15% -28.0% 10% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$79 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized−$2,817
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses331 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$254
Open positions5
Markets (closed)458 / 463
History coverage31d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Julia Grabher 95¢ 91¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $50 $110 +$60 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Laslo Djere 60¢ 47¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$8 -38%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$4 -8%
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart b Jun 16 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$8 +40%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $382 −$347 -91%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $452 −$55 -12%
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto Jun 16 $143 −$52 -36%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $351 −$287 -82%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 +$8 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$18 -85%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $701 −$47 -7%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $251 +$38 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$15 +30%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $51 +$22 +43%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $20 +$26 +126%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $131 +$39 +30%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $111 +$29 +26%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 60¢ $20 5m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 95¢ $200 11m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Julia Grabher 62¢ $34 39m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 92¢ $108 41m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $110 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 85¢ $100 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 100¢ $112 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 91¢ $100 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 89¢ $100 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 36¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $103 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $6 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $17 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $17 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $15 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $9 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 17h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 92¢ $100 17h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 92¢ $100 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $10 19h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 86¢ $30 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.07 · official $378.24 (match) · 1016 history records