Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa6c0…fee0
weather · 296 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$36 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses232 / 58
Open positions6
Markets (closed)290 / 296
History coverage74d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$13
14 days−$25
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 82¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? No 79¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 85¢ 67¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? No 91¢ 61¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 28? No 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? No 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 29? No 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 26? No 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 9? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 19? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 20? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 27? No 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 2? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? No 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? No 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? No 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$34
other 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 6¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -0.7% -10.1% 86% 25% -10.6%
≤30d 245 -1.8% -11.1% 84% 32% -11.4%
≤90d 290 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 35% -11.6%
all 290 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 35% -11.6%
10% -19.7% 14% -20.1%
15% -27.5% 3% -27.8%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.25 · official $21.25 (match) · 638 history records