Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6c1…6b9d sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-11%) realized −$102 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$84
14 days−$74
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$66
other 46% +$98
world 2% −$30
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +47.3% +33.3% 47% 47% +18.2%
≤30d 70 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 36% -6.0%
≤90d 70 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 36% -6.0%
all 70 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 36% -6.0%
10% -19.6% 36% -15.0%
15% -27.4% 33% -23.2%
20% -34.5% 31% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 86
History coverage23d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $28 −$22 (-43%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 27 $7 +$8 +109%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 AND Scotland Jun 25 $31 +$56 +182%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$14 +54%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $10 +$51 +500%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$18 +82%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$17 +57%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$26 +57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $20 +$17 +83%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $10 +$30 +291%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 +$23 +226%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 44¢ $15 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 47¢ $7 37h
Netherlands to win the second half? AND Netherlands leading at halftim BUY 26¢ $15 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U BUY 20¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 26¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 A BUY 20¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 10¢ $5 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end BUY $3 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlan BUY 18¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 AND Scotland BUY 35¢ $15 4d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 AND Scotland BUY 35¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 12¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 29¢ $15 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 54¢ $22 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 16¢ $10 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $31 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.22 · official $63.22 (match) · 144 history records