Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6c3…55a3 sports 376 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,960 (-11%) realized −$23,980 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%144W / 227L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Fees−$4,238est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$74
14 days+$169
30 days−$20,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$30,340
finance 2% +$132
other 1% +$150
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.7% +1.1% 57% 43% +3.8%
≤30d 339 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 35% -18.8%
≤90d 371 -20.1% -27.8% 39% 33% -21.1%
all 371 -20.1% -27.8% 39% 33% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 33% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 29% -28.7%
15% -41.0% 24% -35.6%
20% -46.8% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -29% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$262 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$23,980
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses144 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$4,238
Open positions5
Markets (closed)371 / 376
History coverage32d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 61¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $103 $119 +$17 (+16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $36 +$14 +38%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $176 +$124 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$16 +109%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $69 −$16 -24%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 11 $13 +$17 +129%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $17 +$13 +72%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $11 +$29 +262%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $11 +$9 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$9 +79%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $16 −$16 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $191 +$109 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $26 +$24 +93%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 −$7 -37%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 03 $24 −$24 -98%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $131 +$69 +52%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $1,195 −$1,180 -99%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5) May 29 $335 +$173 +52%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $96 +$3 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $780 −$282 -36%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $831 +$354 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $1,278 −$562 -44%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $355 −$38 -11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $450 −$180 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $393 −$340 -87%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Timofey Skatov May 28 $114 +$78 +68%
Centurion: Yusuke Takahashi vs Edward Winter May 28 $264 +$347 +131%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $280 −$278 -99%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $58 +$56 +96%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $173 −$115 -66%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Franco Roncadelli May 28 $173 −$173 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $122 +$178 +146%
Vicenza: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Remy Bertola May 27 $309 +$191 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $254 +$67 +26%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Devin Badenhorst May 27 $176 +$55 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $13,202 −$6,945 -53%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $2,488 −$2,294 -92%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks May 27 $152 +$148 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $182 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $53 27h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $16 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 72¢ $36 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 52¢ $26 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 58¢ $176 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $13 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 54¢ $16 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $30 5d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 41¢ $52 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $53 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 58¢ $17 7d
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) BUY RED Canids 43¢ $13 7d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 34¢ $13 7d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G BUY Saigon Warriors 27¢ $11 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $16 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $11 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $16 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $11 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $28 8d
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $26 8d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $191 9d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $26 11d
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY MVK Esports 51¢ $15 12d
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY GAM Esports 45¢ $3 12d
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY GAM Esports 23¢ $1 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $18 13d
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Alexander Shevchenko 48¢ $24 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.43 · official $312.43 (match) · 2743 history records