Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6c3…1eb5 sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%118W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$47
14 days+$29
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12
politics 2% −$13
other 2% +$2
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 58% +2.4%
≤30d 145 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 54% -10.1%
≤90d 205 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 58% -10.8%
all 205 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 58% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 58% -10.8%
10% -20.2% 54% -19.4%
15% -27.9% 44% -27.2%
20% -35.0% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses118 / 87
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)205 / 212
History coverage59d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 38¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 45¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 31¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$11 +112%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +143%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 +$5 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +116%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$6 +84%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$7 +163%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$7 +103%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$4 +69%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6 +$10 +162%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 +$10 +114%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.25 · official $19.25 (match) · 843 history records