Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa6c6…730d sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+7%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$26
other 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 47% -1.9%
≤30d 15 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 47% -1.9%
≤90d 15 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 47% -1.9%
all 15 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 47% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 47% -1.9%
10% -7.9% 40% -11.3%
15% -16.8% 40% -19.9%
20% -25.0% 33% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 59¢ 62¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 +$14 +73%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $81 +$10 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$67 +130%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $7 +$10 +131%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $8 48m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $8 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $10 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $6 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $8 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $8 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $25 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 29h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 29h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $9 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $54 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $37 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $81 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $59 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $59 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $51 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $1 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $1 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $1 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 42¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.44 · official $42.44 (match) · 47 history records