Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa6c8…f922 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+13%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +9.0% -1.4% 56% 52% +11.4%
≤30d 25 +9.0% -1.4% 56% 52% +11.4%
≤90d 25 +9.0% -1.4% 56% 52% +11.4%
all 25 +9.0% -1.4% 56% 52% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 52% +11.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 52% +0.8%
15% -19.4% 48% -9.0%
20% -27.3% 44% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$24 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$130 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$41 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$27 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $43 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records