Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa6c9…97ca
sports · 21 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$5 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? May 07 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$1 +40%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$2 +165%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Trabzonspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $2 +$1 +45%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $1 $0 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$2
other 41% +$4
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 13h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 14d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $1 37d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 51d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY No 72¢ $2 53d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 56d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 59d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 59d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $2 60d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 60d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 60d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $1 60d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 60d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 60d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $1 64d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 66d
Will Trabzonspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 70d
Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes $0 76d
Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 77d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Movsar Evloev 69¢ $2 84d
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 86d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 91d
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 93d
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1 93d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤30d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤90d 19 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +10.6%
all 19 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 58% +10.6%
10% -5.5% 58% +0.0%
15% -14.6% 53% -9.7%
20% -23.0% 32% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.94 · official $3.94 (match) · 43 history records