Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

A6 0xa6cd…9ac1 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$76 (-21%) realized −$75 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$74per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-68.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+39.6%	+26.3%	100%	100%	+26.3%
≤90d	1	+39.6%	+26.3%	100%	100%	+26.3%
all	4	-65.1%	-68.4%	25%	25%	-41.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.4%	25%	-41.2%
10%	-71.4%	25%	-46.8%
15%	-74.2%	25%	-52.0%
20%	-76.7%	0%	-56.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$39 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage

Net worth$150

Realized−$75

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage138d

Avg bet$74

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$151	$150	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	May 22	$101	+$40	+40%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	Jan 30	$50	−$50	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?	Jan 30	$16	−$16	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 30	$50	−$50	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$153	1h
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	SELL Yes	97¢	$141	26d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	41d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	BUY Yes	17¢	$50	137d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$16	137d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$50	137d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.78 · official $149.80 (match) · 6 history records