Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6ce…ab45 sports 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,821 (-26%) realized −$12,496 · open −$325
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%60W / 135L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$636
7 days−$636
14 days−$835
30 days−$2,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$1,133
other 37% −$7,060
crypto 25% −$5,142
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -48.4% -53.3% 28% 22% -40.9%
≤30d 48 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 31% -40.7%
≤90d 49 -13.8% -22.0% 35% 33% -40.1%
all 195 -22.2% -29.6% 31% 30% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 30% -33.9%
10% -36.4% 28% -40.2%
15% -42.5% 25% -46.0%
20% -48.2% 24% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$226 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$12,496
Unrealized−$325
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses60 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions3
Markets (closed)195 / 198
History coverage128d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $290 $179 −$111 (-38%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $347 $159 −$188 (-54%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $95 $69 −$26 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $51 −$42 -81%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $202 −$202 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $152 −$152 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $154 +$112 +73%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $103 +$246 +239%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $210 −$206 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $95 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $197 +$168 +86%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $737 −$737 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $141 +$328 +232%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$59 +115%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $204 +$434 +213%
Will Sierra Leone vs. Liberia end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$98 -96%
Exact Score: Ethiopia 1 - 1 Malawi? Jun 07 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? Jun 05 $79 +$141 +178%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $91 −$91 -100%
AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$89 +88%
Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $169 +$153 +91%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $172 +$125 +72%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? Jun 04 $397 −$386 -97%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-03? Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? Jun 04 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Jun 04 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $193 +$294 +152%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $202 −$23 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $198 +$128 +65%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $66 +$203 +307%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $142 +$116 +82%
Will OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? May 02 $11 +$45 +403%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $99 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $97 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $196 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $214 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $255 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 18¢ $266 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 32¢ $348 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $118 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $113 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $92 2h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 15¢ $97 2h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $95 3h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 3h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $154 3h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $152 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $365 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $197 26h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $92 9d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 9d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.48 · official $407.48 (match) · 583 history records