Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d3…345e crypto 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-3%) realized −$224 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%148W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$413
other 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 62% -9.3%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 62% -9.3%
≤90d 255 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 52% -15.0%
all 255 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 52% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 52% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 41% -23.2%
15% -29.0% 29% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 20% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses148 / 107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 257
History coverage78d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 45¢ 40¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$69 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $70 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$40 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$15 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 12 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 12 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 10 $37 −$36 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $110 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $22 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $49 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $67 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $77 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $72 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.92 · official $11.19 (match) · 1751 history records