Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa6d3…1a2a crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$121
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 45% -41.6%
≤30d 11 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 45% -41.6%
≤90d 16 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 44% -41.9%
all 16 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 44% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 44% -41.9%
10% -40.9% 38% -47.4%
15% -46.6% 25% -52.5%
20% -51.9% 19% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage52d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $111 −$108 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $60 +$43 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $23 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $55 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $34 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.99 · official $33.65 (match) · 49 history records