Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d4…2f1e weather 808 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (219 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,818 (+11%) realized +$1,818 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%738W / 69L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day219.1pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$777
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% +$147
sports 37% −$247
other 3% +$248
crypto 1% −$72
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (219 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 451 -2.9% -12.1% 87% 12% -16.2%
≤30d 807 +3.7% -6.2% 91% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 807 +3.7% -6.2% 91% 13% -9.3%
all 807 +3.7% -6.2% 91% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover219.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 13% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 6% -18.0%
15% -23.3% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$36 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,818
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses738 / 69
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)807 / 808
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day219.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 807 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $748 −$110 -15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $302 +$70 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $70 −$29 -41%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$13 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$35 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 21¢ $61 10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $42 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $0 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $1 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $5 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $9 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $9 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $0 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $0 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $1 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $27 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 22¢ $198 24m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 22¢ $0 24m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $321 52m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 32¢ $379 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $331 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $302 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 28¢ $41 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $70 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 47¢ $61 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 19h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 17¢ $9 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 17¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 17¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 17¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 22¢ $5 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 40h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 73¢ $30 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records