Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d9…f7f5 crypto 382 markets active 18h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate76%287W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$40
politics 16% −$2
sports 14% −$22
other 14% +$1
world 8% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.7% -26.5% 44% 44% -30.7%
≤30d 43 -5.0% -14.0% 70% 33% -14.9%
≤90d 189 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 8% -11.1%
all 379 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 5% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -10.6%
10% -19.9% 2% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 2% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses287 / 92
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)379 / 382
History coverage142d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 66¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$4 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $7 +$1 +19%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $7 +$1 +14%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $9 +$15 +164%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $8 +$12 +146%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$7 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $15 +$6 +42%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +2%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $19 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $1 +$3 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 17h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $7 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 3d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $10 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $7 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 82¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $3 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 6d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 67¢ $6 6d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 83¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $8 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 61¢ $7 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $5 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $10 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $10 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 84¢ $7 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 88¢ $7 8d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 9d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 22¢ $8 9d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 83¢ $7 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $8 10d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $9 10d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $5 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.59 · official $18.59 (match) · 1645 history records