Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6da…b2cd crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$480 (-1%) realized −$471 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate79%507W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$180
sports 7% −$171
other 6% −$366
world 5% +$8
tech 1% +$11
politics 0% +$20
culture 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 36% -9.3%
≤30d 46 +3.5% -6.4% 91% 26% -8.4%
≤90d 287 -29.3% -36.0% 61% 16% -16.3%
all 638 -2.9% -12.1% 79% 29% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 29% -10.5%
10% -20.5% 24% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 17% -26.9%
20% -35.2% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$471
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses507 / 131
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)638 / 641
History coverage245d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $149 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $299 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$1 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $347 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $250 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $98 +$17 +17%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $14 +$1 +6%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $234 +$1 +0%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $56 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $191 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $295 +$5 +2%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $153 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $299 +$1 +0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $11 +$5 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $138 +$2 +2%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $11 +$7 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $12 +$8 +67%
AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 1.5 May 19 $11 +$4 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $11 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $200 $0 +0%
SS Juve Stabia vs. AC Monza: O/U 0.5 May 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $11 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $104 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $145 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $142 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $149 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $149 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $9 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $11 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $299 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $299 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $101 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $59 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $69 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $59 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $69 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $149 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $199 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $147 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.08 · official $13.08 (match) · 1831 history records