Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e1…200d crypto 285 markets active 7h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%171W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day84.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$176
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$166
sports 7% −$36
other 5% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 -9.2% -17.9% 61% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 280 -8.8% -17.5% 61% 41% -12.6%
≤90d 280 -8.8% -17.5% 61% 41% -12.6%
all 280 -8.8% -17.5% 61% 41% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 41% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 25% -21.0%
15% -32.6% 15% -28.6%
20% -39.2% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses171 / 109
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)280 / 285
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day84.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $16 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $14 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $16 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.67 · official $30.67 (match) · 848 history records