Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e1…219e world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$8
other 12% +$1
sports 10% $0
tech 7% $0
politics 7% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 55% 9% -11.6%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 8% -11.3%
all 32 +0.5% -9.1% 41% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -10.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage331d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $78 −$8 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $3 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? Aug 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump attend Hulk Hogan's funeral? Aug 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 36h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $36 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $36 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $39 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $3 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $3 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $38 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $37 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $28 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $9 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $36 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 98 history records