Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e3…3fe8 other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36,448 (-35%) realized −$36,394 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%104W / 159L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$576est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$40,676
30 days−$32,777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$33,478
other 41% −$6,633
politics 1% +$3,053
world 1% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 +43.4% +29.8% 57% 57% -61.7%
≤90d 263 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 40% -41.4%
all 263 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 40% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 40% -41.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 40% -47.0%
15% -26.0% 38% -52.2%
20% -33.3% 37% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$371 vs −$475 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$770
Realized−$36,394
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses104 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$576
Open positions2
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage77d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $464 $400 −$64 (-14%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $360 $370 +$10 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $877 −$862 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $41,592 −$41,480 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,274 +$726 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $505 +$1,395 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $462 −$456 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $615 −$601 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $522 +$278 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $741 +$559 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $233 +$281 +120%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $396 +$234 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 05 $506 −$501 -99%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,080 +$3,053 +283%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 03 $175 −$175 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,751 +$4,004 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,043 −$1,030 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $299 −$34 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 25 $546 −$544 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $551 +$1,119 +203%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $204 +$536 +262%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $585 +$715 +122%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$6 +127%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $528 −$528 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $296 −$296 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $447 +$823 +184%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $454 +$346 +76%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $203 +$97 +48%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $461 −$451 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $308 −$300 -98%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $178 −$177 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $297 +$363 +122%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $306 −$301 -98%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $313 −$313 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $162 −$159 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $305 −$299 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $551 −$551 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $228 +$172 +75%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $675 −$672 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $707 −$700 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 18 $451 −$451 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $161 +$137 +85%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $90 +$258 +285%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $181 +$239 +133%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $118 +$122 +104%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $122 +$104 +85%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $106 +$114 +108%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $211 +$179 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $350 38m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $107 2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $369 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $7,272 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $462 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $868 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,529 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $201 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2,012 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $505 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,274 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $145 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $6,036 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1,858 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $79 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $21 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $46 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $4 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $426 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $26 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $81 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $17 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $12 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $129 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $9 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $203 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.00 · official $770.00 (match) · 1814 history records