Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa6e5…5709
world · 68 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$48 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$48 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage481d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$36
14 days+$37
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $82 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $203 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $74 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $160 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $101 +$36 +36%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $106 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $177 +$9 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $49 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -20%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $35 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $66 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $64 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $29 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% +$58
politics 20% −$1
other 14% +$1
sports 8% −$11
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $59 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $71 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $52 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $67 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $24 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $59 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $82 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $34 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $81 44h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $55 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.4% -6.4% 30% 10% -6.5%
≤30d 30 +48.0% +33.9% 53% 13% -6.4%
≤90d 67 +21.3% +9.8% 33% 6% -7.9%
all 68 +19.5% +8.2% 32% 6% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 6% -8.2%
10% -2.2% 4% -16.9%
15% -11.6% 4% -25.0%
20% -20.3% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $0.00 · 308 history records