Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A6 0xa6e5…9852 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$126 (+15%) realized +$134 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$171per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+45.2%	+31.4%	100%	100%	+27.1%
≤30d	2	+45.2%	+31.4%	100%	100%	+27.1%
≤90d	2	+45.2%	+31.4%	100%	100%	+27.1%
all	4	-1.0%	-10.4%	75%	50%	+12.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.4%	50%	+12.0%
10%	-19.0%	50%	+1.3%
15%	-26.8%	25%	-8.5%
20%	-34.0%	25%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$55 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage

Net worth$329

Realized+$134

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage96d

Avg bet$171

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Australia	66¢	64¢	$337	$329	−$8 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 19	$271	+$70	+26%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$165	+$106	+65%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-15?	Mar 15	$55	−$55	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Mar 15	$23	+$1	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY Australia	66¢	$341	2h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	79¢	$271	23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$165	2d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-15?	BUY No	80¢	$55	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$3	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$3	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$3	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$10	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$2	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$2	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$23	96d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.47 · official $329.47 (match) · 13 history records