Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e6…8f4b sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-13%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$15
crypto 35% −$37
other 19% −$81
culture 1% −$7
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -11.5% -20.0% 55% 41% -19.0%
≤30d 24 -13.2% -21.5% 54% 42% -19.5%
≤90d 27 -22.8% -30.2% 48% 37% -22.8%
all 27 -22.8% -30.2% 48% 37% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 37% -22.8%
10% -36.9% 37% -30.2%
15% -43.0% 33% -36.9%
20% -48.6% 15% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage33d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $44 +$17 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 +$23 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 +$23 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$53 +206%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the R May 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up $22 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $44 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $18 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $40 28h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $18 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 47¢ $19 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $50 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $22 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the R BUY Yes 12¢ $7 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? SELL No 39¢ $7 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? BUY No 27¢ $5 30d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 22¢ $9 33d
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes $6 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.78 (match) · 51 history records