Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e6…d5b8 world 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,164 (-15%) realized −$8,164 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,442per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$960
7 days−$13,535
14 days−$13,084
30 days−$8,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$9,132
sports 8% +$336
other 6% +$625
finance 2% +$73
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.2% -20.5% 69% 31% -52.9%
≤30d 26 +1.4% -8.2% 81% 35% -23.7%
≤90d 38 -11.6% -20.0% 66% 32% -23.1%
all 38 -11.6% -20.0% 66% 32% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 32% -23.1%
10% -27.7% 16% -30.5%
15% -34.7% 11% -37.2%
20% -41.1% 3% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,213) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$1,211 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,442
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,972 +$78 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $3,390 +$129 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $853 +$100 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $845 +$30 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $503 +$100 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,213 +$122 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,475 +$27 +2%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $603 +$102 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $403 +$26 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $600 +$247 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $1,090 −$252 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10,997 −$10,197 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,283 −$2,283 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,773 −$1,771 -64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$11 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$405 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,000 +$46 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $973 +$87 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $9,005 +$718 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 03 $35 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 03 $865 +$70 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,997 +$1,739 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $270 +$32 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,024 +$2,281 +113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,121 +$59 +5%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $17 +$6 +37%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $999 +$11 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $400 −$12 -3%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,050 17m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1,972 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $147 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $953 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $875 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $845 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $602 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $853 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $503 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,335 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $252 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $701 21h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $705 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $512 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $62 22h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $603 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $200 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 85¢ $428 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $529 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $500 41h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $847 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $55 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $55 46h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $600 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $603 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records