Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6f2…1255 sports 586 markets active 3h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,652 (-2%) realized −$1,356 · open −$296
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%481W / 94L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$357
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,029
weather 19% −$10
crypto 10% −$83
other 6% +$931
world 3% −$178
politics 1% −$119
finance 0% −$185
tech 0% −$255
economics 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -74.6% -77.0% 0% 0% -67.5%
≤90d 6 -63.2% -66.7% 0% 0% -49.3%
all 575 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 16% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 16% -11.8%
10% -20.7% 11% -20.2%
15% -28.4% 7% -28.0%
20% -35.4% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$74 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$758
Realized−$1,356
Unrealized−$296
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses481 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)575 / 586
History coverage164d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $191 $127 −$65 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $102 $125 +$23 (+23%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $63 $79 +$16 (+25%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $98 $71 −$27 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $71 −$28 (-28%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $72 $64 −$8 (-11%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $72 $58 −$14 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $106 $43 −$63 (-60%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $96 $13 −$82 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $260 −$255 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $303 −$72 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 23 $205 −$110 -54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $352 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 16? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $545 +$955 +175%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 16 $76 +$24 +32%
Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Mar 11 $319 +$4 +1%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon Ducks Mar 11 $646 +$10 +2%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-03-08? Mar 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-03-08? Mar 10 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13? Mar 09 $51 +$8 +16%
Spread: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4.5) Mar 08 $36 $0 +1%
Spread: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-5.5) Mar 08 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $171 +$17 +10%
Spread: Yale Bulldogs (-13.5) Mar 08 $34 $0 +1%
Princeton Tigers vs. Yale Bulldogs Mar 08 $84 $0 +0%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Stony Brook Seawolves Mar 08 $183 +$17 +9%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $793 +$7 +1%
UIC Flames vs. Murray State Racers Mar 07 $178 +$1 +1%
Stetson Hatters vs. Austin Peay Governors Mar 07 $270 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $750 +$16 +2%
Drake Bulldogs vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Mar 06 $89 +$11 +12%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Central Eagles Mar 06 $439 +$57 +13%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $1,413 +$86 +6%
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-8.5) Mar 05 $44 +$1 +1%
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5) Mar 05 $55 +$1 +1%
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-5.5) Mar 05 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $200 $0 +0%
Stetson Hatters vs. Eastern Kentucky Colonels Mar 05 $616 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $692 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 3? Mar 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $177 $0 +0%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Morgan State Bears Mar 03 $1,408 +$29 +2%
Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-4.5) Mar 02 $51 +$1 +1%
Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-3.5) Mar 02 $89 +$2 +2%
Spread: Bradley Braves (-4.5) Mar 02 $106 +$1 +1%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Drake Bulldogs Mar 02 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Howard Bison (-8.5) Mar 01 $79 +$1 +1%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-5.5) Mar 01 $84 +$1 +1%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5) Mar 01 $86 +$1 +1%
Spread: Howard Bison (-9.5) Mar 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Spread: North Carolina Central Eagles (-2.5) Mar 01 $156 +$2 +1%
Spread: UNC Asheville Bulldogs (-3.5) Feb 28 $61 +$1 +1%
Spread: UNC Asheville Bulldogs (-4.5) Feb 28 $128 +$1 +1%
Spread: Charleston Cougars (-4.5) Feb 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $82 3h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 15h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 15h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 17h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 18h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.51 · official $758.01 (match) · 3185 history records