Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6f7…1f33 other 954 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$464 (-7%) realized −$406 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%410W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day69.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$80
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$12
politics 24% −$95
world 5% −$8
tech 4% +$16
finance 4% +$18
sports 3% −$6
culture 2% −$23
economics 2% −$12
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -1.5% -10.9% 49% 27% -11.1%
≤30d 548 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 30% -12.1%
≤90d 813 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 32% -10.5%
all 813 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 32% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 19% -19.1%
15% -24.2% 10% -26.9%
20% -31.6% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$406
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses410 / 403
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions200
Markets (closed)813 / 954
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day69.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 200 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Will Chris Oladokun start Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2026? Yes 41¢ 25¢ $14 $8 −$5 (-40%)
Over 10 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? Yes 52¢ 73¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+41%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Aster dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-21? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 65¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Yes 59¢ 91¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+53%)
Over $160B wagered on US sports betting in 2026? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-04 House seat? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 77¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 21¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? Yes 31¢ 78¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%? Yes 51¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1580%
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +12%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting Jun 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor pri Jun 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -28%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -10%
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -61%
APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Jun 16 $14 −$3 -22%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -45%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
Spain snap election called in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -30%
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 1h
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 3h
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 5h
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 5h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 6h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 7h
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 9h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 10h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 11h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting SELL Yes 58¢ $5 11h
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 12h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 58¢ $5 13h
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor pri SELL Yes 32¢ $2 14h
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor pri SELL Yes 32¢ $2 14h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 14h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 14h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 15h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 16h
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 16h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 16h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 16h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 16h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 16h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 16h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 16h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 17h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.59 · official $242.62 · 3500 history records