Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa6fc…cf21 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$177 (+14%) realized +$284 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$29
14 days+$207
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$41
sports 8% +$172
crypto 6% −$28
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 37 +6.6% -3.6% 43% 43% +6.1%
≤90d 37 +6.6% -3.6% 43% 43% +6.1%
all 37 +6.6% -3.6% 43% 43% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 43% +6.1%
10% -12.8% 43% -4.1%
15% -21.2% 43% -13.3%
20% -29.0% 38% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage251d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $61 +$48 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $257 −$257 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $181 +$75 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $58 +$47 +82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $92 +$55 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $44 +$48 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$67 +169%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$21 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $40 +$72 +180%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$89 +180%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $50 +$89 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $61 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $53 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $203 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $181 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $105 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $20 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $27 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $10 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $92 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 87 history records