Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6fe…7e71 other 1003 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,912 (-5%) realized −$1,912 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%438W / 578L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$260
14 days−$173
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$1,781
weather 3% +$74
sports 3% −$313
crypto 2% −$112
politics 0% −$13
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -47.4% -52.4% 23% 15% -36.9%
≤30d 167 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 26% -15.1%
≤90d 625 -16.1% -24.1% 44% 33% -14.9%
all 1016 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 33% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 33% -14.0%
10% -30.6% 26% -22.3%
15% -37.3% 19% -29.8%
20% -43.5% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$1,912
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses438 / 578
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1016 / 1003
History coverage158d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1016 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 270 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C or higher on June 8? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$7 -148%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 8? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on June 8? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $4 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $148 +$12 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $3 +$4 +143%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 24 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerl Jun 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $6 −$4 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $44 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$4 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 $0 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL 36¢ $1 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 14h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY 34¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $3 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.09 · official $147.09 (match) · 3194 history records