Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa700…102b sports 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,199 (+12%) realized +$17,164 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%143W / 273L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day281.8pace
Fees−$2,847est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$8,450
other 15% −$2,428
world 2% −$1,946
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 +51.3% +36.9% 31% 20% -17.0%
≤30d 416 +60.0% +44.7% 34% 24% -11.7%
≤90d 416 +60.0% +44.7% 34% 24% -11.7%
all 416 +60.0% +44.7% 34% 24% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover281.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.7% 24% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here +30.9% 19% -20.2%
15% +18.2% 17% -27.9%
20% +6.7% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +71% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$92 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$17,164
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses143 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$2,847
Open positions1
Markets (closed)416 / 277
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$498
Trades / day281.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 5¢ 8¢ $75 $110 +$35 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 293 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $48 +$5 +11%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $91 −$80 -88%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +9448%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -58%
Athletic Club vs. Fortaleza EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $9 −$7 -82%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $66 −$4 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $25 +$100 +398%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $26 −$15 -58%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $55 +$32 +58%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $30 +$153 +508%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $62 −$62 -100%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $25 −$9 -36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $7 +$36 +532%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $0 +$4 +1494%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $31 −$52 -169%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 29 $23 −$21 -90%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $25 +$3 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $25 +$51 +202%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $9 −$6 -62%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 0m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $9 0m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 0m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 5¢ $65 0m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 1m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 1m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $11 1m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $108 3m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $19 3m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 7¢ $105 3m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $6 3m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 4m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 6m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 12m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $916 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $29 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $36 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $9 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $106 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $181 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $503 16m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $503 16m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $62 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.58 · official $153.41 · 3500 history records