Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa702…d64e
crypto · 55 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$27 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage107d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 3? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? No 10¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $3 −$3 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $1 +$3 +314%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 02 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 02 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $1 $0 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -70%
Khamenei seen in public by February 28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 28? Feb 28 $1 $0 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $1 +$5 +545%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3? Feb 28 $1 $0 -23%
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February? Feb 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 27 $2 −$1 -92%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February? Feb 27 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $1 $0 -16%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 27? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Feb 27 $1 +$5 +476%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 34% −$10
other 30% −$8
tech 14% +$1
finance 13% −$6
politics 4% $0
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 39d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 39d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 40d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 40d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.3% -26.1% 33% 33% -28.4%
≤30d 12 -18.3% -26.1% 33% 33% -28.4%
≤90d 15 -26.7% -33.7% 27% 27% -36.1%
all 52 -8.6% -17.3% 27% 25% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 25% -25.9%
10% -25.2% 19% -33.0%
15% -32.5% 13% -39.5%
20% -39.1% 12% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.18 · official $5.68 · 103 history records