Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa70a…8cef crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,030 (+1%) realized +$1,029 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%65W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$2,796per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$235
other 25% +$154
economics 1% +$63
sports 1% +$556
politics 0% +$3
world 0% +$12
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 25% -4.6%
≤90d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 11% -6.0%
all 70 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 7% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,048) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×18.54 per $1 lost it wins $18.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$1,029
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses65 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage274d
Avg bet$2,796
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $54 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $42 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $52 +$2 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 11 $41 +$1 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 11 $16 +$1 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 11 $33 +$1 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 11 $42 +$1 +2%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 01 $27 $0 +1%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Tesla reach $645 in January? Feb 10 $19 $0 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 10 $23 +$1 +5%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Jan 03 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 03 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $55 +$1 +1%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15? Dec 27 $16 +$1 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 14 $24 +$2 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $80 +$10 +12%
Israel strikes Iran by November 30? Dec 10 $22 +$1 +4%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? Dec 10 $57 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 16? Nov 17 $3,957 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 16 Nov 17 $4,290 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 16? Nov 17 $16,709 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 15? Nov 15 $3,607 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 15? Nov 15 $6,065 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on November 15? Nov 15 $15,259 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $24,830 +$100 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on November 13? Nov 14 $1,451 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 13 Nov 14 $2,702 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on November 13? Nov 14 $5,500 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 13? Nov 14 $6,116 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 13? Nov 14 $9,037 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 12? Nov 13 $24,704 +$100 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $24,630 +$74 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 10 Nov 11 $24,604 +$25 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 November 3-9? Nov 10 $2,932 +$3 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 November 3-9? Nov 10 $4,027 +$4 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 November 3-9? Nov 10 $16,342 +$16 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $998 +$586 +59%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? Oct 07 $8 +$2 +22%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 3d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $54 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 25d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 95¢ $42 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 97¢ $52 39d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 68d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 109d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $42 109d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 109d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 97¢ $33 109d
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 111d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 111d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $25 129d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $27 129d
Will Tesla reach $645 in January? BUY No 99¢ $19 167d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? BUY No 100¢ $17 174d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 187d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $55 187d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $32 187d
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15? BUY No 94¢ $16 187d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $30 187d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 97¢ $21 190d
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game BUY Yes 94¢ $24 190d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 95¢ $23 190d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 190d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $47 203d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? BUY No 99¢ $57 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.21 · official $115.21 (match) · 154 history records