Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa70b…464f crypto 370 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-2%) realized −$139 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%224W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$52
14 days−$60
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$185
sports 3% −$53
other 1% −$74
politics 1% +$28
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +4.8% -5.2% 71% 67% -11.6%
≤30d 92 +1.4% -8.2% 68% 65% -14.8%
≤90d 369 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 58% -13.7%
all 369 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 58% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 58% -13.7%
10% -21.1% 50% -21.9%
15% -28.7% 35% -29.5%
20% -35.7% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses224 / 145
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)369 / 370
History coverage44d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $78 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $192 −$77 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$31 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$31 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $4.50 · 857 history records