Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa70e…709f crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$865 (-2%) realized −$680 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%48W / 41L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days−$251
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$2,327
world 22% +$355
sports 16% −$1,861
other 14% −$361
politics 4% −$1,796
economics 1% −$13
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 29% -6.7%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 30% -23.9%
≤90d 58 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 41% -15.4%
all 89 -1.9% -11.2% 54% 42% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 42% -11.6%
10% -19.7% 34% -20.0%
15% -27.5% 31% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 28% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$233 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses48 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage151d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $300 $181 −$119 (-40%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $134 −$66 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $51 −$26 -51%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $383 +$57 +15%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $112 −$44 -39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $206 +$4 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $205 +$3 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $87 −$7 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A Jun 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 −$216 -85%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$104 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $336 −$182 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 21 $103 −$91 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $206 +$160 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 21 $309 +$81 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 21 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 21 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 21 $129 −$90 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 21 $128 +$75 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 21 $103 +$65 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 21 $128 +$75 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 21 $128 +$77 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 21 $77 +$46 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 21 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 21 $233 −$80 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 21 $105 +$74 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 21 $104 +$92 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 21 $104 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 21 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 21 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 21 $104 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 21 $53 −$44 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 21 $103 +$92 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $460 −$305 -66%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $430 −$286 -66%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $620 +$123 +20%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 17 $95 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 14 $92 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 11 $99 −$7 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 11 $121 +$5 +4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $88 −$55 -62%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $61 +$52 +86%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 10 $354 −$13 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $100 +$52 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL OG 27¢ $25 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $260 16h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $68 17h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $179 20h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $179 20h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $112 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 51¢ $51 21h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 53¢ $51 21h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $209 21h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $204 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $208 21h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Mor BUY 12¢ $81 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $80 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $87 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 28¢ $204 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $242 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A SELL 0¢ $0 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 20¢ $172 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $37 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 91¢ $165 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.97 · official $393.84 · 319 history records