Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa70e…b02a other 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$482 (-29%) realized −$491 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$79
sports 45% −$570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 43% -28.9%
≤30d 8 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% -32.4%
≤90d 11 -41.9% -47.4% 27% 27% -43.6%
all 12 -46.7% -51.8% 25% 25% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 25% -45.6%
10% -56.4% 25% -50.8%
15% -60.6% 25% -55.6%
20% -64.5% 25% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$100 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$491
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage112d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $100 −$10 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $103 $93 −$11 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$160 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 +$155 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$84 +82%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals AND Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY 15¢ $103 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $153 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 7d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 19¢ $51 28d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $96 32d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 32d
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas BUY Zalgiris Kaunas 31¢ $102 50d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 52d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No 67¢ $20 113d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No 71¢ $25 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.23 · official $322.23 (match) · 56 history records