Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa70f…a14f sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$20 (+7%) realized +$45 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$47
other 16% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 57% +2.1%
≤30d 7 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 57% +2.1%
≤90d 7 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 57% +2.1%
all 7 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 57% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 57% +2.1%
10% -9.1% 57% -7.7%
15% -17.9% 57% -16.6%
20% -25.9% 57% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 45¢ 8¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $20 +$20 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $21 +$21 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $50 +$41 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $49 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $38 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 45¢ $30 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 7h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $20 7h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $20 7h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $21 7h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 55¢ $10 19h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $50 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.00 · official $92.00 (match) · 14 history records