Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A7 0xa712…982c crypto 831 markets active 13h ago coverage 50d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,069 (+3%) realized +$1,210 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%415W / 390L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$7,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$5,363
sports 35% +$2,172
crypto 20% −$546
world 2% +$661
politics 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 46% -23.8%
≤30d 400 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 50% -22.5%
≤90d 805 +1.6% -8.0% 52% 51% -5.7%
all 805 +1.6% -8.0% 52% 51% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 51% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 51% -14.8%
15% -24.9% 50% -23.0%
20% -32.2% 49% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$36 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$7,803
Realized+$1,210
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses415 / 390
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions26
Markets (closed)805 / 831
History coverage50d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $1,685 $2,972 +$1,286 (+76%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 69¢ $1,375 $1,445 +$71 (+5%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1,049 $1,023 −$26 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $653 $680 +$27 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $547 $444 −$103 (-19%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 61¢ 52¢ $482 $405 −$77 (-16%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $1,641 $325 −$1,316 (-80%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 88¢ $64 $77 +$12 (+19%)
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $38 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 77¢ 75¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 55¢ 58¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 66¢ 65¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 56¢ $25 $23 −$3 (-10%)
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 66¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-19%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 76¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 67¢ 65¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 −$90 -196%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $69 +$85 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $90 −$176 -196%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 +$185 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$58 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $137 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +312%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $66 −$128 -196%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $36 −$4 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 37¢ $6 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $95 13h
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 37¢ $23 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 66¢ $621 30h
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 32¢ $29 32h
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 31¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 35h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 62¢ $4 39h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 62¢ $2 40h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 62¢ $19 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,803.04 · official $7,803.26 (match) · 2998 history records